A Review of the Implementation of Mississippi’s Public School Dropout Prevention Program
Executive Summary
Introduction
During its 2006 Regular Session, the Legislature established the Office of Dropout Prevention within the Department of Education, effective July 1, 2006. The Legislature directed this office to work with the state’s public school districts to establish dropout prevention plans and programs designed to increase the statewide ninth through twelfth grade cohort graduation rate to 85% by the 2018-2019 school year (from 60.8% during the 2004-2005 school year).
In response to a legislative inquiry, the PEER Committee reviewed the Office of Dropout Prevention’s implementation of the statewide public school dropout prevention program. While the office was only one year into a thirteen-year program at the time of PEER’s review, because the state and districts had been actively engaged in dropout prevention efforts since passage of the Education Reform Act in 1982, PEER determined that a review of the efforts of the newly created office could benefit both the department and the Legislature in efforts to reduce the state’s public school dropout rates.
PEER focused its review on addressing the following questions:
What is the dropout problem nationally and in Mississippi?
While U. S. and Mississippi dropout rates have declined slightly over the past decade, the personal and social costs of any individual dropping out of school are high. Further, Mississippi’s statewide four-year cohort dropout rate of 26.6% for the school year ending in 2005 masks significant variation in the rates from district to district, with eleven of the state’s 152 public school districts having four-year cohort dropout rates in excess of 40% and ten of the districts having dropout rates of less than 9%.
To obtain the answer to this question, PEER sought the answers to several related, more specific questions, each addressed below.
How do education policymakers define dropout and related terms?
The definitions of “dropout” and related terms are important because who is included in each term affects the associated rate calculations.
The Mississippi Department of Education (MDE) has adopted the National Center for Education Statistics’ definition of a dropout. A dropout is an individual who:
Other students excluded from being counted as dropouts are those that are home schooled; attend a non-public school program for disability, illness, drug or alcohol problems, or emotional or psychological problems; attend state-operated schools such as Oakley; or are enrolled in a certificate completion program. Any student attending an Adult Basic Education GED program must be counted as a dropout under federal regulations governing the funding of these programs.
MDE defines graduates as “students earning traditional diplomas.” Graduates, special education students earning occupational diplomas, special education students earning certificates of attendance, and students earning a GED through a district- or state-approved program are counted as completers.
How do education policymakers calculate the dropout rate and related rates?
While several methods exist for calculating dropout and related rates, the cohort or longitudinal method is considered the best method because it shows the percentage of students who dropped out, completed, or graduated from a given graduating class during a specified period, usually ninth through twelfth grade or seventh through twelfth grade.
Primary Methods of Calculating the Rates
Dropout Rate Calculations
Exhibit A below describes the three primary methods of calculating dropout rates and the advantages and disadvantages of each method, according to the SREB. As the exhibit shows, in a state such as Mississippi with an information system designed to track individual students, the longitudinal or cohort method is the method of reporting dropouts that is most consistent with the public’s perception of what the dropout rate should measure.
Graduation Rate Calculations
There are three primary ways of calculating the graduation rate:
Completion Rate Calculation
The status completion rate denotes the percentage of individuals who are not in high school and who have earned a high school diploma or equivalent credential. This rate does not take into account when the credential was achieved. The cohort completion rate is calculated the same way as the cohort dropout rate, with the numerator being the number of students in the cohort who are completers (rather than the number of students who dropped out).
| Type of Dropout Rate | Method of Calculation | Advantages | Disadvantages |
|---|---|---|---|
| Longitudinal or Cohort | divide the number of students who drop out by the number in the original class, adjusted for transfer students; while a cohort is usually measured from the 9th grade through the 12th grade, it can also be measured from the 7th grade through the 12th grade | +the method is most consistent with the public’s perception of dropouts | -states may not have information systems to track individual students as they progress from grade to grade |
| +accounts for students who leave school one year and return later | -absent of information systems, cohort rates often are estimated based on a sample of students or projected based on “annual” dropout rates | ||
| +accounts for students who are retained in grade nine but stay in school and graduate later than their original classmates | |||
| Annual Event | percentage of students who are enrolled in May or June who do not graduate and do not return to school in September or October | +easy to calculate | -only includes students who drop out each year; it may understate the dropout problem over four years |
| +a practical way to determine the number of students who leave school each year | -the calculation is affected by the range of grade levels used to compute the rates | ||
| Status | percentage of a particular age group who are not enrolled in school and who do not have a high school diploma | +may be the most appropriate rate for comparing state results and for determining changes over time | -like all estimates based on samples, the percentages have some errors |
| -not available for individual schools and school districts |
SOURCE: Southern Regional Education Board, Educational Benchmarks 2000 Series, Reducing Dropout Rates.
Rate Calculations: Reporting Requirements
The federal No Child Left Behind Act (NCLB) requires states to calculate and report traditional graduation and annual event dropout rates.
MISS. CODE ANN. Section 37-21-9 (d) (1972) requires MDE to report annually the cohort graduation and dropout rates to the Legislature “based on Grades 7 through 12 and Grades 9 through 12 cohort groups, statewide and by district.” The recent implementation of the Mississippi Student Information System has allowed MDE to calculate ninth through twelfth grade cohort rates, beginning with the student cohort that entered the ninth grade during the 2001-2002 school year. Implementation of MSIS will also allow MDE to calculate the seventh through twelfth grade cohort rates in the future.
What are the dropout and graduation rates and historical trends for the U. S. and for Mississippi?
During the school years beginning in 1993 and ending in 2005, dropout rates, calculated according to the annual event method (cohort data is not available over this period), have generally declined both nationally and in Mississippi, while graduation rates have remained fairly constant since the 1990-1991 school year. However, it is important to note that there is wide variation in the dropout, graduation, and completion rates by individual public school districts in Mississippi.
Dropout rates calculated according to the annual event method (the only rates available historically for Mississippi and the U. S.) have generally declined both nationally and in Mississippi during the school years beginning in 1993 and ending in 2005. Specifically, over this period, Mississippi’s dropout rate declined from 6% to 2.84%, while the national rate declined from slightly over 5% to slightly under 4%.
During the 2005-2006 school year, 5,628 students dropped out of Mississippi’s schools from all grades combined. The largest percentages of students dropped out in the ninth and tenth grades (each of these grades accounted for 20% of students dropping out in the 2005-2006 school year), followed by 18.46% of the total who dropped out in the eleventh grade. Dropouts in grades nine through twelve accounted for 73% of total dropouts in the 2005-2006 school year.
How does the dropout problem affect society?
The dropout problem affects society in terms of high personal and social costs. For example, individuals without a high school education are at greater risk than high school graduates of being unemployed, employed in low-wage jobs, imprisoned, and unhealthy.
Policymakers are concerned about dropouts because these individuals may be unable to enter the workforce with the necessary skills and education to meet the demands of the nation’s global economy. Increasing the number of graduates with a quality education would strengthen the nation’s economy and would reduce public and private expenditures on rectifying the shortcomings of an undereducated workforce.
Besides the economy being affected, the health and well-being of dropouts are affected as well. Evidence suggests that health and well-being of an individual drastically improve just by obtaining a high school diploma. Literature says that high school graduates live longer, are less likely to be teen parents, produce healthier and better-educated children, and rely less on social services. A healthier nation, both financially and physically, affects all Americans by reducing the tax burden and cost of government services.
How does the dropout problem affect Mississippi?
According to research estimates, if all of Mississippi’s employed dropouts completed high school and earned the same annual median income as high school graduates, they would increase their income by $1.8 billion annually.
According to the Mississippi University Research Center, only about one-third of all high school dropouts in Mississippi work or seek work. Mississippi dropouts have a 70% higher unemployment rate than individuals that have a high school diploma. Mississippi’s dropouts earn on average about $4,665 less annually than do high school graduates. Dropouts also affect the state’s gross state earnings. MURC noted that in 2004, if all employed dropouts earned a high school diploma and increased their annual median income to the annual median income of a high school graduate, they would earn an additional $1.8 billion annually.
What have the federal government and Mississippi done to address our state’s dropout problem?
Both the federal government and Mississippi have initiatives in place to prevent students from dropping out of school. Through related programs and federal and state legislation, the efforts in preventing dropouts are widespread and have been in existence for many years.
To obtain the answer to this question, PEER sought the answers to several related, more specific questions, each addressed below.
What has the federal government done to address the dropout problem?
The federal government has provided states the opportunity for funding through programs that, for the most part, indirectly impact the dropout rate by addressing factors that put a student at risk of dropping out of school (e.g., Reading First Grants and Mathematics and Science Partnership Grants). Federal legislation, such as the No Child Left Behind Act, has strengthened the federal government’s efforts in keeping students in school.
What has the Mississippi Legislature done to address the dropout problem?
The Mississippi Legislature has passed laws that mandate dropout prevention programs and that create several offices responsible for the administration, implementation, and evaluation of dropout prevention efforts. Recent legislation requires that the state cohort graduation rate increase to 85% by the 2018-2019 school year.
What has the Mississippi Department of Education done to address the dropout problem?
MDE has issued a report on public school dropouts, staffed an Office of Dropout Prevention, created state dropout prevention plans and mandated district dropout prevention plans, and implemented an information system to track students through the school system.
What have the individual Mississippi school districts done to address the dropout problem?
School districts have dropout prevention programs in place and MDE has required the districts to develop dropout prevention plans in accordance with state dropout prevention plans, both in 2004 and 2007.
Has the early implementation phase of Mississippi’s current dropout prevention effort provided a foundation for success?
While MDE’s current dropout prevention effort provides the districts with materials on dropout prevention goals and nationally recognized strategies and best practices, elements of the department’s program implementation pose concern. MDE did not evaluate the status and effectiveness of the districts’ 2004 dropout prevention plans, which would have helped to ensure the most efficient use of those plans in identifying and adopting best practices, to reduce confusion between existing plans and the requirements of the new plan, and to limit duplication of effort between the existing plans and the new plan. PEER found no clearly defined strategy to ensure districts’ careful adherence to adopted best practices or to rigorous, ongoing program evaluation and oversight to ensure acceptable outcomes.
To obtain the answer to this question, PEER sought the answers to related, more specific questions, each addressed below.
What are the nationally recognized best practices in preventing dropouts?
Organizations such as the National Dropout Prevention Center/Network and the Southern Regional Education Board have identified programs proven through research to be effective in reducing at-risk behaviors associated with dropping out of school and have used the knowledge gained through successful implementation of these programs to develop broad “strategies” for states to use in dropout prevention.
What steps need to be taken to ensure that best practices are implemented as effective district dropout prevention programs?
While MDE’s Office of Dropout Prevention has supplied the districts with the best practices in dropout prevention from the National Dropout Prevention Center/Network at Clemson University and the Southern Regional Education Board, the successful development and implementation of effective dropout prevention programs require careful adherence to established best practices as well as rigorous and ongoing program evaluation and oversight.
Has MDE taken the necessary steps to ensure that the districts successfully implement and/or develop their own best practices in dropout prevention?
While MDE has provided the districts with materials on dropout prevention goals, strategies, and best practices, it has not evaluated the state’s current dropout prevention programs to determine whether they conform to best practices. Without ensuring that program content and implementation adhere to best practices, the state cannot maximize its effectiveness in addressing its dropout problem. Further, because MDE has not provided the districts with cost data for the fifty “exemplary” programs identified by the NDPC/N, the districts cannot maximize their use of scarce resources in addressing their dropout problems.
How do the state’s current dropout prevention efforts interface with initiatives already in place?
Prior to the 2007 State Dropout Prevention Plan, initiatives were already in place at both the state and district level. MDE has not evaluated them to determine whether a new effort was needed or to ensure that the new initiative would be advancing the state’s progress towards achieving an 85% graduation rate by the 2018-2019 school year.
Both the districts and MDE have had dropout prevention initiatives in place since the Education Reform Act of 1982 and the current MDE effort is utilizing some of the same dropout prevention programs already in place in the school districts. Despite the fact that these measures already existed in individual districts, MDE is mandating new district plans instead of evaluating and building on previous efforts.
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